Economist · Washington, D.C.
Philip A. Luck
Trade, globalization, and economic policy.
Director, Economics Program · Scholl Chair in International Business
Center for Strategic and International Studies
With Secretary Blinken at the State Department, 2024. Photo: U.S. Department of State.
About
I study how trade, investment, and migration shape the global economy, and what happens to it as governments increasingly treat commerce as an instrument of security. The work runs in three registers: academic research, policy analysis, and, for two and a half years, the practice of making policy. My research has appeared in leading journals, including the Review of Economics and Statistics and the Journal of Labor Economics. I write for CSIS and Lawfare, and my research and analysis are cited in the New York Times, The Economist, the Wall Street Journal, and the Financial Times.
I direct the Economics Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, where I hold the Scholl Chair in International Business, and I serve as an associate editor at the Journal of Geoeconomics. From 2022 to 2025 I was Deputy Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of State, and Acting Chief Economist from late 2023 into 2024. There I led analysis on sanctions and export-control evasion, supply chain resilience, economic coercion, and the design of migration policy.
Before government I taught at the University of Colorado Denver and Drexel University; my Ph.D. in economics is from the University of California, Davis.
Research interests
Selected research
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Luck, Philip A. “Contract-Production Reliance and the Output Cost of Supply Disruption.” Working paper, 2026.
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Bloom, Nicholas, Kyle Handley, André Kurmann, and Philip A. Luck. “The China Shock Revisited: Job Reallocation and Industry Switching in U.S. Labor Markets.” NBER Working Paper 33098. Revise and resubmit, Review of Economic Studies.
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East, Chloe N., Annie L. Hines, Philip A. Luck, Hani Mansour, and Andrea Velásquez. 2023. “The Labor Market Effects of Immigration Enforcement.” Journal of Labor Economics 41 (4): 957–96.
Recent writing
Selected coverage
- New York Times What Is IEEPA, the Law Trump Used to Levy Tariffs? · Feb 2026
- Politico When the World Stops Syncing · Apr 2026
- Bloomberg Xi Risks Global Blowback If China Curbs Rare Earths to Japan · Nov 2025
- Washington Post How China Weaponized Soybeans to Squeeze U.S. Farmers · Oct 2025
Advisory & Engagements
I work with firms, investors, and institutions trying to make sense of how geopolitics is reshaping the global economy, and what it means for the decisions in front of them. Engagements run from a single briefing to sustained advisory relationships.
Contact
Send a note using the form below. I read everything, and reply when I can. For advisory work, see Advisory & Engagements.