Writing
Policy research and commentary on trade strategy, tariffs, export controls, economic security, AI infrastructure, and migration, most of it published at CSIS and some at Lawfare and elsewhere.
Featured writing
Three pieces that carry an argument beyond the week they were written in. Everything on this page is policy writing rather than peer-reviewed work; the journal articles and working papers are on the research page.
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What Happens if Congress Codifies Russia Sanctions?
Codification would lock in the current sanctions architecture and hand Congress the keys to any future relief. The leverage that buys depends on who is still buying Russian energy: Europe has largely exited, China and India have not, and the discount they pay is where the pressure actually registers.
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Bitter Harvest: Diagnosing and Deterring Chinese Coercive Agricultural Trade Restrictions
A method for telling coercive agricultural restrictions apart from ordinary sanitary measures, and what deterrence would have to look like. China’s buying power is concentrated in raw commodities and thins as goods move up the processing chain, which is where exporters’ exposure is and is not real.
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America’s Unproven Productivity Boom, and the Cost of Misreading the Data
Why the measured productivity gain is not yet evidence of an AI dividend, and what policy gets wrong if it assumes otherwise. Across 32 industries, how much labor firms held onto in 2021 predicts which ones compressed hours after 2022; none of six AI-exposure measures does.
Non-peer-reviewed research
Commentary
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